Topics in
Emerging Financial Markets
C15.0023 Spring 2005
Professor
J.P. Mei
New York University
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Case Presentations: |
Cases & Solutions: |
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Karnataka Waste Final Paper, Karnataka Waste Power Valuation |
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Course Description
The course covers essential elements of emerging financial markets, securities and how the securities are valued and traded. The perspective is that of the investment manager, responsible for investment portfolios of insurance companies, banks, pension funds, mutual funds, endowment funds, and personal trusts. What we cover in this course has obvious implications for asset allocation and security selection strategies. We discuss several outstanding problems of emerging market investment, including political risk, currency risk, speculative craze, market manipulation, different accounting rules, and performance measurement. We will also cover emerging market security valuation, portfolio diversification, project finance, and venture capital. The objective here is to train highly skilled financial analysts and managers with strong theoretical background and practical knowledge about emerging markets.
Prerequisites Finance core courses
Background Reading: Malkiel and Mei, Global Bargain Hunting (Touchstone 1998).
Internet Resources:
1.Emerging Market Corporate Finance by Prof. Cam Harvey (I have incorporated some Prof. Harvey's material in my course)
It is most important that students keep up to date with the reading for the course. The closed-book final examination questions will be taken from the readings that appear in the Syllabus and from case assignments that are distributed on a regular basis. The grade will be based on a final examination (30%) and a group project (70%).
The group project will be conducted by a group of 5 students, which will
focus on the construction and marketing of a country fund or writing a business
plan.
1) For
country fund, it will include writing a prospectus, a quarterly report, and a powerpoint
document for a “road show”. Towards the end of the term, every group is
expected to do a road show, i.e. convince an investment committee made of your
peers and myself that the fund is a good long term investment. Every student
needs to make 4-5 minutes presentation on behalf of the team. The grade will be
based on the prospectus, the quarterly report, and the performance at the “road
show”.
2) For Business plan, it will include a plan report and a powerpoint document for a “road show”. Towards the end of the term, every group is expected to do a road show, i.e. convince an investment committee made of your peers and myself that the plan is feasible. Every student needs to make 4-5 minutes presentation on behalf of the team.
Lecture 1: Measuring Return And
Volatility.
We will begin by discussing why emerging market provide the great growth opportunities. We will then study the issues of measuring Emerging Market equity returns, return distributions, and the general evidence of market volatility. We will examine short- vs. long-term correlations of various different markets. We will also study the relationship between risk and returns. Then, we will take a close look at the volatility of market valuations and how this volatility may affect asset allocation. Finally, we will discuss alternative measurement of risk and the impact of speculation on volatility.
Assigned readings:
1.
The Myth of
Asia's Miracle by Paul Krugman(Required)
2. The Distributional Characteristics of Emerging Market Returns, Bakaert, Erb, Harvey, Viskanta
Lecture 2: Currency Crisis
These lectures cover issues related to exchange rate determination. We will examine currency market volatility and contagion, which will be followed by a microeconomic analysis of the Asian financial crisis. Then, we will cover some structural problems in EM economies.
Assigned readings:
1. Michael Pomerleano, 1999, The East Asia Crisis and Corporate Finance, Emerging Market Quarterly.(Required)
Lecture 3: Managing Political Risk
This lecture will cover a brief history of submerged markets (e.g. Russia, Argentina, Mexico) and survivorship bias. We will also examine the corruption issue. We will outline major political risk in the past and present. Finally, we will cover issues related to measuring and insuring political risk.
Assigned readings:
1. "Global Bargain
Hunting" by Burton Malkiel and J.P. Mei (Touchstone): Chapter 3 & 4
2. "Political
Uncertainty, Financial Crisis, and Market Volatility" by Jianping Mei and
Limin Guo. PDF(Required)
3. Campbell R. Harvey, "Expected Returns and Volatility in 135
Countries" with Claude Erb and Tadas Viskanta, Journal of Portfolio
Management Spring 1996, pp. 46-58. (P36) PDF
Lecture 4: Forecasting Currency Crisis and Risk Management
We will discuss various models for exchange rate forecasting. We will present actual data on 11 disguised countries and asks students to consider which is most likely to experience a crisis. We will also study currency hedging from both corporate finance and portfolio investment perspective.
Assigned readings:
1. HBS Case: Currency Crises by Robert
E. Kennedy and Brian P. Irwin(Required)
2. Case Study: Identifying, measuring,
and hedging currency risk at Merck, JACF
Lecture 5. Corporate Governance
Issues in EM
This lecture will examine corporate
governance issue and corruption issue and how they may affect investment value
and corporate finance.
Assigned readings:
1. "Global Bargain Hunting" by Burton Malkiel and J.P. Mei (Touchstone): Chapter 3 & 4
2. Stijn Claessens and Joseph P.H. Fan, 2002, Corporate Governance in Asia: A Survey, View temporary PDF
Lecture 6: The Top-Down,
Bottom-up, and Momentum Strategies
This lecture will begin by studying various ways of gauging valuation levels of emerging markets. We will discuss the Smith Barney Global Asset Allocator Model and its performance. The application of this model in a single market is also discussed. We will also demonstrate how momentum strategies may be applied to achieve market outperformance.
Assigned readings:
Lecture 7: Cost
of Capital and Asset Valuation
We will discuss the determination of cost of equity capital for Emerging Market investment, followed by a review of valuation techniques used to assess cross-border investments. We will then cover the discounting of free cash flows with a weighted average cost of capital and the use of adjusted present value.
Assigned readings:
1. The Goldman Model of Equity Cost
of Capital, Kent Hargis, PDF(Required)
2. Rene Stulz, The globalization of equity markets and the cost of capital, PDF.
Lecture 8. Real Options in Emerging Market Investment
Lecture 9: Credit
Risk Measurement.
This lecture extends the z-score model to estimates the credit quality of emerging market corporate debt. We will then show how fixed income securities work and how they are valued. We will focus on the Brady bond market. We will then examine the relationship between credit risk and bond yields.
Assigned readings:
Lecture 10:
Financing of the Mozel Project
Mozel is $1.4 billion aluminum smelter project in Mozambique. This case is designed for people with an interest in capital investments in emerging markets. It presents an extreme example of political risk in a developing country and shows how project sponsors attempt to mitigate the risks through project selection, structuring, and insurance.
Assigned readings:
1. HBS Study: An
Overview of Project Finance (HBS: N9-200-028) PDF(Required)
2. HBS Case: Financing the Mozal
Project, by Benjamin C. Esty and Fuaad A. Qureshi
3. Ben Esty's excellent
project finance portal
Lecture 11: Infosys: Financing an
Indian Software Start-Up
This case describes the financing and growth of Infosys, an Indian software start-up. The company must decide whether it should seek to also list its shares on a U.S. stock exchange and, if yes, whether to list on NASDAQ or NYSE.
Assigned readings:
1: HBS Case: Infosys: Financing an Indian Software Start-Up, by Walter Kuemmerle and William J. Coughlin
Lecture 12: Bank Risk Management
and Financing
We will begin by discussing the financial crisis in many EM banks. We will outline the major risks faced by these banks. In managing these risks, we will discuss capital adequacy, risk based capital ratios, deposit insurance, and other liability guarantees. We will cover liquidity and liability management, product and geographic diversification, risk management using derivatives, and securitization.
Assigned readings:
1. NYU Case: ICICI Debt Financing
Writing an Emerging Market Case
In this course, you will build a case with a group of your classmates. Here are the steps you should take:
a) Begin work immediately by forming
your groups and get interesting case ideas.
b) I would advise you work closely with
international students in the class, in particular, those from emerging
markets. They might have some
connections and interesting ideas.
c) Find a most efficient way of
obtaining data, via express mail, fax, or email.
d) When you start, use the following
checklist:
1: Collect Press Information on the
Company
2. Collect Macroeconomic, Social, and
Political Condition of the country over the last ten years.
3: Collect Balance sheet and Income
statement information
4: Collect Market Data on price,
dividends, trading volume, and earnings forecast
5: Collect data on debt ratings and
yields on similar bonds
6: Apply valuation models
7: Write research report
Please note that the case must be finance related and use some of the tools taught in the course (such as country risk analysis, cost of capital models, credit rating, portfolio management, capital structure, Present Value analysis, etc). Be innovative and try to identify new investment opportunities. You may also update one of the case studied in the course but you’ll get less credits. For example, a group of former Russian students once wrote a case on how to start Internet cafe in Moscow.
Remember: the easier it is to obtain good data, the more complex an analysis I would expect. You need to strike a balance between data availability and depth of analysis. You will not have a good case if you have no data to back up your story.
Previous Cases Available
These two cases should also provide a model for your preparation. A set of cases by Duke Students are available for your references as well as the following case:
1. Financing of the Petrozuata Project
Deadline
You should deliver to me the following by the end of
a) 1/26: Email me team memebers (5 points)
b) 2/23: a word file that provides an outline of your case. It must include the main story line and what you have done so far. (5 points)
c) 3/23: A summary of Press information and information on Macroeconomic, Social, and Political Condition of the country over the last ten years. (5 points)
d) 4/11: Summary of company financial information and analysis (5 points)
e) 4/18: Valuation analysis (5 points)
f) 4/20 Road show (30 minutes each, 25 points)
g) 5/ 4 Final version: It must include the following components (in either word or PDF (PDF preferred)) (20 points):
1. A one-page executive
summary (on why this is an interesting case for Senior Undergraduates)
2. The case
3. Teaching note
(Solution to the case)
4. PowerPoint presentation
5. Supplementary materials (i.e.
analyst report, press clippings, what happened recently, spreadsheets,etc)
Or Group Project II: International Business Plan
(You Should Start Working Now!)
In this course, you may also develop a business plan with a group of your classmates. Here are the steps you should take:
a) Begin work immediately by forming your groups. Find a product or a business that is under developed in certain markets/countries in the world.
b) I would advise you to work closely with other students in the class. They might have some connections and interesting ideas.
c) Find a most efficient way of obtaining data, via express mail, fax, or email.
e) When you start, use the following checklist:
1: Collect pricing information about the product or service
2. Collect costs of labor, production, technology, intellectual property
rights, amount investment and other related startup costs (if any)
3: Collect industry competitive information
4: Provide financial analysis as well as major risk analysis
5: Provide Development, Financing, Marketing and other execution Strategies.
Deadline: You should deliver to
me the following on
1) 1/26: An email (jmei@stern.nyu.edu) notifying me what product/business you select, names of your group members, group leader and his/her email. (5 points)
2) 2/23: A first draft of your B-plan introduction. (5 points)
3) 3/23: A first draft of cost and profit analysis based on costs of labor, production, technology, intellectual property rights, amount investment, and pricing information. (5 points)
4) 4/11: A first draft of Country/Industry/company analysis for road show document. (5 points)
5) 4/18: PowerPoint presentation slides for road show (5 points)
6) 4/20:
Road Show (25 points)
7) 5/4: Final version of Prospectus, quarterly report, road show document, and powerpoint slides. (20 points)
Data resources
1. Global Macroeconomic and Financial Policy Site by Nouriel Roubini