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webcasts UG valuations

 


This 28-session equity valuation class will be recorded starting January 28, 2019, and the lectures are accessible in multiple ways. You can get the supporting lecture notes by clicking on the pdf files below - the pages covered by each lecture are provided next to each lecture. For the syllabus and other details, visit the home page .

Lecture Notes

  1. Introduction to Valuation
  2. Part I: Discounted Cashflow Valuation: This is a pdf file and works well if you have an iPad or tablet to read it on If you have trouble printing this file, download the powerpoint file. You can then choose to print the slides, one to a page, two or a page, in note format or whatever your heart desires. (Updated for Spring 2019 class).
  3. Part II: Relative Valuation and Private Company Valuation : This is a pdf file and works well if you have an iPad or tablet to read it on If you have trouble printing this file, download the powerpoint file. You can then choose to print the slides, one to a page, two or a page, in note format or whatever your heart desires. (Updated for Spring 2019 class).
  4. Part III: Real Options, Acqusition Valuation and Value Enhancement: This is a pdf file and works well if you have an iPad or tablet to read it on If you have trouble printing this file, download the powerpoint file.You can then choose to print the slides, one to a page, two or a page, in note format or whatever your heart desires. (Updated for Spring 2019 class).

  5. Part IV: Closing Presentation

Webcasts
This page will include the webcasts from the current class. The webcasts can be accessed in one of four ways:

  1. Streaming video (The file will be streamed to your computer. This will work only if you have a good internet connection, but should be of the best quality and the most information)
  2. Video podcast (The file will be downloaded to your computer and you can watch the video using Quicktime or video software or on your iPod)
  3. Audio podcast (The .mp3 file will be downloaded as an audio file and can be played on any audio player). The AV system used to record the lectures has changed and I think it is much improved.
  4. YouTube videos (if you have slower internet connection and/or a small device).

Options for following class

You can follow this class in other forums. One is iTunes U, where you can watch the webcasts and follow the class on your tablet or even smartphone. The other is YouTube.

  1. Apple iTunes U: If you would like to watch the sessions on Apple iTunes U on your Apple device, try this link.
  2. YouTube: I have created a playlist for the class, where the sessions will be posted sequentially with links to slides and other material.

Finally, you can read the emails that I send to the class by this link.

Session Webcasts Topics covered Lecture notes
Preview of the class
What is this class about?
 

1 (1/28/19)

  1. Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
  2. Video podcast (downloadable)
  3. Audio podcast (downloadable)
  4. YouTube


Introduction to Class
  1. Syllabus for class
  2. Project Description
Post-class test and solution.
Valuation of the week #1

A Jedi Valuation of Star Wars

  1. A Post on the value of the Star Wars Franchise (December 2015)
  2. Star Wars Franchise Valuation spreadsheet
  3. Star Wars, The Force Awakens - Actual Box Office
  4. Rogue One - Actual Box office
  5. Star Wars, The Last Jedi - Actual Box Office
  6. Solo - Actual Box Office
Google Shared Spreadsheet

2 (1/30/19)

  1. Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
  2. Video podcast (downloadable)
  3. Audio podcast (downloadable)
  4. YouTube


Valuation bias: A test and my solutions
  1. Introduction to Valuation

Why bother (with valuation)?
The Bermuda Triangle of Valuation
Intrinsic Valuation: The Big Picture
Relative Valuation: The Big Picture
Real Options: The Big Picture

Post-class test and solution.
Valuation Tools Webcast #1
Getting Data for Valuation
Data collection: The first step
In this webcast, I look at the basics of getting the raw material needed for valuing a business - financial statements, sector information and macro economic data.
  1. SEC website
  2. SEC Live
  3. FRED (Federal Reserve)

3 (2/4/19)

  1. Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
  2. Video podcast (downloadable)
  3. Audio podcast (downloadable)
  4. YouTube
Cash flow consistency: A test (Congoleum)
  1. Lecture note packet 1: Pages 1-26
DCF Big picture
DCF inputs: The Discount Rate
- Setting the table
- Risk and the marginal investor
Post-class test and solution.
Valuation of the week # 2
  1. My first blog post on Apple & Amazon (from September 2018)
  2. My follow up blow post on Apple & Amazon (from September 2018)
  3. Apple's latest earnings report (Jan 2019) and last 10K
  4. An updated valuation of Apple (Feb 2019)
Google Shared Spreadsheet

4 (2/6/19)

  1. Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
  2. Video podcast (downloadable)
  3. Audio podcast (downloadable)
  4. YouTube

 

Risk Free Rates: A test
  1. Lecture note packet 1: Pages 27-53
  2. Sovereign Ratings - January 2019
  3. Sovereign CDS Spreads - January 2019
  4. Equity Risk Premiums by Country - January 2019

Risk free Rates
- Across Currencies
- Across time
- Negative Risk free Rates?
The Equity Risk Premium
- Historical Risk Premiums
- Country risk premiums

Post-class test and solution.
Weekly Challenge #1

Reconciling firm and equity valuation

  1. Weekly challenge #1
  2. Solution
Valuation Tools Webcast #2
Downloadable webcast
YouTube
Much of the raw material (data) that we use for valuation comes from annual reports and financial filings. (10, 10Q). In this presentation, I lay out a template for extracting information from these filings, separating the stuff that matters from the stuff that does not, using P&G in September 2012 as an illustration.
  1. Presentation
  2. P&G: 10K
  3. P&G: Valuation (Excel spreadsheet)

5 (2/11/19)

  1. Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
  2. Video podcast (downloadable)
  3. Audio podcast (downloadable)
  4. YouTube
Risk Premiums: A test
  1. Lecture note packet 1: 54-75
  2. Implied ERP: February 2019


Measuring Company Risk Exposure to Country Risk
Implied Equity Risk Premiums
- More on estimation
- Interaction with other "risk" premiums

Post class test and solution
Valuation of the week #3
  1. Blog post on Amazon and Apple from September 2018
  2. Amazon's latest 10K (from January 2019)
  3. My updated valuation of Amazon (February 2019)
  4. A Side Note: My Blog Post on Amazon Prime (from 2017)
Google Shared Spreadsheet

6 (2/13/19)

  1. Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
  2. Video podcast (downloadable)
  3. Audio podcast (downloadable)
  4. YouTube


Betas and cost of capital: A test (just page 2) Lecture note packet 1: 76-100
Measuring Relative Risk (Betas & Alternatives)
The cost of debt
Subsidized Debt
Post class test and solution
Weekly Challenge # 2a

Implied Premium versus Riskfree Rate

Implied premium challenge, data and solution