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The Valuation Email Chronicles: Spring 2017


The emails for this class will be collected on this page, arranged chronologically. Have fun with them!

Email content

For those of you who were in my corporate finance class, the torture begins again (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7edeOEuXdMU). For those of you who are new to this experience, you will soon find out. I am sure that you are finding that break is passing by way too fast, but the semester is almost upon us and I want to welcome you to the Valuation class. One of the best things about teaching this class is that valuation is always timely (and always fun...) Just as examples: Is it time to buy or sell Twitter? Is Uber worth $70 billion? Is there a market bubble? What is the value added or destroyed by the Kardashians? Are the Dallas Cowboys really worth more than the New York Yankees? Is there a Trump effect on markets and if so what is it? If you have not visited my blog, I put my thoughts down on these issues (though I am still working on the Kardashian valuation):

1. Preclass work: I know that some of you are worried about the class but relax! If you can add, subtract, divide and multiply, you are pretty much home free... If you want to get a jump on the class, you can go to the class web page:

2. Syllabus & Calendar: The syllabus for the class is available on the website for the class and there is a google calendar for the class that you can get to by clicking on
For those of you already setting up your calendars, it lists when the quizzes will be held and when projects come due.

3. Lecture notes: The first set of lecture notes for the class should be available in the bookstore by the start of next week. If you want to save some money, they can also be printed off online (if you want to save some paper, you can print two slides per page and double sided). To get to the lecture notes, you can try
Please download and print only the first packet on discounted cashflow valuation. If you want to save paper, you can download the pdf file on you iPad, Android or Kindle and follow along...

4. Delivery choices: I hope to see you all in class for every session, but there are two supporting delivery mechanisms that I would like you to take advantage of:
a. iTunes U: I will also be posting the material for the class on iTunes U. If you have never used iTunes U, you need an Apple device (iPad or iPhone) and have to download the iTunes U app (free). Then use the enroll code: FHS-KWW-FPK.
Alternatively, type in or click on the link for the class.
I really like the set up and I think you may enjoy it too. If you have an android, it is a little more involved, but try downloading Tunesviewer, an Android app that lets you use iTunes U.
b. YouTube Channel: There is a final option, if your broadband connection is not that great and you are watching on a Tablet/smartphone. There is a YouTube playlist for this class, where all class sessions will be loaded.
When you get a chance, check it out.

5. Books for the class: The best book for the class is the Investment Valuation book - the third edition. (If you already have the second edition, don't waste your money. It should work...) You can get it at Amazon or wait and get it at the book store... If you are the law-abiding type, you can buy "Damodaran on Valuation" - make sure that you are getting the second edition. If you can get the Asian edition, even better. It is exactly the same book and costs about a third. Or, as a third choice, you can try The Dark Side of Valuation, again the second edition, if you are interested in hard to value companies.. Or if you are budget and time constrained, try "The Little Book of Valuation". Finally, if you really want to take a leap, try my newest book, Narrative and Numbers at
You will find the webpages for all of the books at http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/public.htm.

6. Valuation apps: One final note. I worked with Anant Sundaram (at Dartmouth) isn developing a valuation app for the iPad or iPhone that you can download on the iTunes store: http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/uvalue/id440046276?mt=8
It comes with a money back guarantee... Sorry, no Android version yet... As for Blackberry, fuggedaboutit... Dead technology walking!!! I am looking forward to seeing you in a few days (The first day of class is January 23, 2017 in Paulson Auditorium. I think we are going to have a lot of fun (at least, I am... ).


One of the themes of this class will be that while your valuation looks like a collection of numbers, the story that holds these numbers together is the glue. Consequently, to get a handle on valuation, you have to learn to navigate that space between stories and numbers and your skills have to be broad. I know that you are still on break and that the last thing you want to do is reading, but if you do get a chance, please read this post that I have on my blog:

The post was triggered by the awe I felt, looking up at Brunelleschi’s Duomo in Firenze this summer, but the thoughts are all investing/valuation thoughts. In fact, I just finished a book on connecting stories to numbers and here is the post introducing the book (which became available a couple of weeks ago).

Just a few quick notes leading into class on Monday:
1. Please make sure that you got my email from last week. If you joined the class this week or just don't read class related emails during your break, you can find the entire email by going to
2. Visit the website for the class and check out the Google calendar to make sure that you don't have any quiz conflicts:
3. If you have an Apple device, please download iTunes U (a free app from the app store). Once you have it installed,click to plus to add a class and when prompted, enter the enroll code FHS-KWW-FPK. The Spring 2017 version of the valuation class should pop up. All of the lectures will then show up on your iPhone or iPad as webcasts that you can watch. If you have an Android, you will need another app to watch iTunes U. One app that seems to work is Tunesviewer. (http://tunesviewer.sourceforge.net)
4. If the previous step exhausts you technologically, you can try a different route. You can use YouTube, where I have started playlist for this class:
The lectures will show up on this playlist as well. See you in class on Monday!


We are officially rolling. If you enrolled in the class in the last couple of days, you did miss the first two emails but they are already in the email chronicle, in case you are interested:
Email chronicles: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/eqemail.html
This chronicle will be updated at the end of each week to include all emails sent up until then. There were three handouts in class today. If you were unable to get one or more, here are the links:
Syllabus: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/eqUGsyllspr17.pdf
Project: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/eqUGsyllspr17.pdf
Introduction to Valuation (Slides for Wednesday’s class): http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/ValIntrospr17.pdf
A quick note about today's class. During the session, I told you that that this was a class about valuation in all of its many forms – different approaches (intrinsic, relative & contingent claim), different forums (for acquisitions, value enhancement, investing) and across different types of businesses (private & public, small and large, developed & emerging market). After spending some time laying out the script for the class (quizzes, exams, weekly tortures), I suggested that you start thinking about forming a group and picking companies. To get the process rolling, here is what I have done
1. Group: Please do find a group to nurture your valuation creativity, and a company to value soon. If you are ostracized, or feel alone, I have created a Google shared spreadsheet (an Orphan list, so to speak) that you use to find others like you in the class:
2. Company Choice: Once you pick a company, collect information on the company. I would start off on the company's own website and download the annual report for the most recent year (probably 2014) and then visit the SEC website (http://www.sec.gov) (for US listings) and download 10Q filings. (You can pick any publicly traded company anywhere in the world to value. The non-US company that you value can have ADRs (but does not have to have ADRs) listed in the US but you still have to value it in the local currency and local market. You can even analyze a private company, if you can take responsibility for collecting the information.)
3. Webcast of today’s class: The web cast for the first class are up and running (or at least the streaming version). You can access it by going to:
The links to iTunes U and YouTube will also be up shortly.
4. Lecture Note Packets: You can wait for the bookstore to get its act together and get the packets ready or you can get a jump by downloading the lecture note packet online. It is available at the top of the webcast page (see link above) in either pdf or ppt format. (I was told by someone that the lecture note packet link is not working, but it seems to be (at least for me). Am I missing something?
5. Post class test: To review what we did in class today, I prepared a very simple post-class test. I have attached it, with the solution. Give it your best shot.
If you did not get the syllabus, project description and the valuation intro in class this morning, they are all available to print off from this site. I will also be sending out a post class test and solution after each session that should take you no more than 5-10 minutes to do. It is a good way to review the class and I hope that you find it useful. Sorry about the length of this email, but there will be more to come (I promise!).

Attachments: Post-class test and solution.

1/24/17 If you are going to do a valuation of Star Wars, I think it makes complete sense to start with Yoda talk. So, for your first valuation of the week, let’s have some fun. I have always been a Star Wars fan, and like other fans, I was a little worried when Disney bought Lucas Films (and with it the rights to the Star Wars franchise) for $4 billion a few years ago. Disney was explicit about its plans at the time, and said that it planned to produce three major Star Wars movies, continuing the story, and three side stories (like Rogue One) filling in history. I went to see Force One in December 2015 and wrote this post on my blog about what I thought the value of Star Wars was at the time;
I assigned a value of almost $10 billion to the franchise, with a big chunk coming from the side products (toys, software, apps) coming from the franchise. You can download the spreadsheet that contains the valuation here:
When I wrote the post, Force Awakens had been out in theaters only a few days and I estimated box office revenue of $2 billion for the movie. Rogue One, of course, had not been released yet and I estimated revenues of $1 billion. Force Awakens is now one for the history books, with global revenues of just over $2 billion and Rogue One just crossed the $1 billion threshold.
Updated box office for Force Awakens: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=starwars7.htm
Updated box office for Rogue One: http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Rogue-One-A-Star-Wars-Story#tab=summary
Armed with this additional information, here is what I would like you to do. Go into the spreadsheet and reestimate the value of the Star Wars franchise. It may be only tweaks but give it your best shot. Once you have a value, go into this shared Google spreadsheet:
Enter your numbers and lets see how the distribution of values evolves over time. And since this is a Star Wars post, might as well end with some good advice:

did not mention this in the opening session but at the start of every class for most of the semester (other than the three quiz days), there will be a start of the class test, where we will look at questions that preview the material that is coming in the rest of the class. (I know… I know.. This sounds backward, but trust me on this one).We will start class today with a series of scenarios, where you have to decide whether you will be biased to push your values up or push them down. To give you chance to look at the scenarios before you get hit with them, I am attaching the start of the class test for tomorrow. With each one, think of the direction of the bias and also think about the mechanism that you will use to bring that bias into your numbers. (As an owner, you may inflate the market potential for your product..)

Attachments: Valuation bias: A test, Post-class test and solution.


It is never too early to start nagging you about the project. So, let me get started with a checklist (which is short for this week but will get longer each week. Here is the list of things that would be nice to get behind you:
Find a group: The groups are yours to create and you should try to have at least 4 people in a group and not more than 8 (that limit is for your own projection). If you have trouble finding one, try the orphan spreadsheet for the class. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LlXOU4co21Y7Ft9tIqdvAPmcMO1HJGUBITtSyLz0s7c/edit?usp=sharing )
Pick a company: This will require some coordination across the group to make sure that you meet the minimum criteria (at least one money loser, high growth, emerging market, service company). In making this choice, remember that you can value any business you want, public or private, small or large, listed in any market. There are at least a couple of entrepreneurs in the class who are valuing their own businesses and quite a few valuing privately owned family businesses.
Annual Report: Find the most recent annual report for your company. If you are valuing a private business, just ask for income statements and balance sheets for as long as you can get them (I will assume that you know the owner or better still, you are the owner).
Public filings: If your company has quarterly reports or filings pull them up as well.
In doing all of this, you will need data and Stern subscribes to one of the two industry standards: S&P Capital IQ (the other is Factset). It is truly a remarkable dataset with hundreds of items on tens of thousands of public companies listed globally, including corporate governance measures. I am working on getting you okayed to use this dataset and I will let you know when it is accessible.

On a different note, I told you that I would be experimenting with some neat online technologies through the class. If this is not your think, that’s fine but the platform that I am trying out is called Acadly. You can learn about it by going to:
As you can see, it is a forum that I will be using to share blog posts with you, run short poll questions on valuation and have a discussion board. If you are intrigued, download the app from the App store on your smartphone and we may play with it over the course of the semester. Then again, we might not.


Three quick notes.
1. Valuation Tools Webcast #1: The first is that I did put up the first valuation tools webcast on the basics of data collection. I know that many of you still pondering your company choices and group dynamics, but if and when you pick a company, the first step is to get the raw material you need for your valuation. These include data on the company (annual reports, regulatory filings like the 10K/10Q), sector wide data (numbers for other companies in your sector) and macro economic data. I know that many of you already know exactly how to do this. However, if you feel uncertain, you can try this webcast out.
It is about 15 minutes long & not very professionally produced. So, ignore the bad light and bobbing head and focus on the content!

2. There are three TAs for the class, all of whom have gone through this class in prior semesters. Their names, email addresses and office hours are listed below:
Javier Cuellar, jwc479@stern.nyu.edu, Office hours: Friday 12-1.30
Lawrence Duff, lawrence.duff@stern.nyu.edu, Office hours: Tuesday 12-1.30
Shaneil Mehta, sm4948@stern.nyu.edu, Office hours: Tuesday 4-5.30
My office is always open, if I am in. So, use the fair game principle to your advantage. The TAs will also be running a one-hour review session each week, where they will be covering the material from that week’s class sessions. The review sessions will be in KMEC 2-70 from 4.30-5.30 pm on Wednesdays. Since the room fits 60, you should sign up for the review sessions that you are interested in attending, in the Google shared spreadsheet below.
Note that these sessions are not required and if you feel comfortable with the material in class, you can skip them.

3. As should have been obvious, this is a big class with more than 300 people in it. That makes it a great venue for announcements that you may want to make about club activities or events. I will open each class session by allowing one announcement. If you want to make an announcement, please sign up for it as well in the Google shared sheet below:


I hope that you are enjoying your first weekend back at school. I will intrude with a couple of notes. First, the first newsletter for the class is attached. As I said, there is usually not much news in these newsletters. Think of it more as a GPS for the class, telling you where we went last week and laying out our plans for the week ahead. If you get a chance, take a look at it. Second, we will be starting with the first lecture note packet in class on Monday. Please have it with you for class. Have a great weekend!

Attachment: Issue 1 (January 28)


First things first. This week, we will be delving into the mechanics of discount rates, starting with the risk free rate and then moving on to the equity risk premium. They are both central to valuation and we live in unusual times, where the former, in particular, is doing strange things.

Second, we will be starting off tomorrow's class with the question of firm versus equity valuation. I am attaching the cash flow table that we will be using for the start-of-the-class test as well. If you get a chance, please take a look at it before you come into class. The question is at the bottom of the page.

Third, I was checking out the Google shared spreadsheet on my first valuation of the week. Well done! I see 81 of you have tried to value the franchise. You can still do it, if you have not done it already. If you have already forgotten about it, you can find the details on the webcast page for the class.

Attachment: Cash Flow Test (for class on 1/30)

1/30/17 Today's class started with a look at a major investment banking valuation of a target company in an acquisition and why having a big name on a valuation does not always mean that a valuation follows first principles. After setting the table for the key inputs that drive value - cash flows, growth, risk, we looked at the process for estimating the cost of equity in a valuation. The key concept is that of a "marginal" investor, who is diversified and looking at risk through that investor's eyes. We spent the rest of the session talking about what should be (but no longer is) the simplest input into the process: the risk free rate.
I hope that the discussion of riskfree rates a left you fairly clear about what to do next. In case, you are still confused, this is the next step in the process:
1. Pick a company (in case you have not already).
2. Determine a currency that you will value the company in. Once you have decided on the currency, find a riskfree rate in that currency. If your company is a US or European company, you just got lucky. Either take the easy way out and use the US T.Bond rate as the dollar riskfree rate and the German 10-year bond rate as the Euro riskfree rate, or adjust them for the default risk you see in each sovereign.
If you are valuing a company in an emerging market in the local currency (be brave), your job is a little more complicated.
2a. Get the longest term government bond rate you can get in the local currency. You can check out the Economist (look at the tables towards the end of the publication and at the long term interest rate). You can also try this site for long term local currency government bond rates:
2b. Get the local currency rating for the country by going to the moody's web site: http://www.moodys.com (Look under sovereign ratings). Estimate the default spread given the rating by downloading the country default spread spreadsheet that you can find at the link below
On Wednesday, we will go through the mechanics of converting a government bond rate into a risk free rate.
I have a blog post on risk free rates that may help clarify things better:
The post class test and solution are also attached
1/31/17 Since we are still not into the nuts and bolts of valuation, I decided that we should spend this week too on a “fun” valuation”, tied to Super Bowl weekend. This is a throwback in time, but it is a valuation and pricing that I did of the Los Angeles Clippers, when Steve Ballmer paid $2 billion for the team. I explain how I value the Clippers and how I would value any sports franchise in this post:
You can find my valuation of the Clippers in this link:
You can do one of the two things in this week’s valuation challenge.
1. You can take my Clipper valuation and make your own assumptions (there are relatively few) and value the Clippers as of June 2014.
2. The other is more challenging but could be more fun. I have raw data on sports franchises below:
For MLB, NFL, NBA and NHL: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/SportsTeamData.xlsx
For European soccer teams: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/eurosoccerrawdata.xls
For IPL (Indian cricket) teams: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/IPLrawdata.xls
The IPL and Euro soccer data is a little outdated and you are welcome to update them, if you want. If you are a fan, you can pick your favorite team and using the raw data in these spreadsheets, try to value and price your franchise. Once you have that number, please do share what you find on the Google shared spreadsheet:
In the last column, I ask you how much you would pay to own the team. For the Clippers, I have set that equal to my value. But if I were valuing the Yankees, I might pay a premium because I love the Yankees. They are not just an investment and I will pay an ego or fan premium.

We started the class by completing the discussion of risk free rates, exploring why risk free rates vary across currencies and what to do about really low or negative risk free rates. The blog post below captures my thoughts on negative risk free rates:
We are about halfway through the discussion of equity risk premiums but the contours of the discussion should be clear.
a. Historical equity risk premiums are not only backward looking but are noisy (have high standard errors). You can the historical return data for the US on my website by going to
Click on current data, and look to the top of the table of downloadable data items.
b. Country risk premium: The last few months should be a reminder of why country risk is not diversifiable. As you see markets are volatile around the world, I think you have a rationale for a country risk premium. You can get default spreads for country bonds on my site under updated data. If you are interested in assessing and measuring country risk, to get from default spreads to equity risk premiums, you need two more numbers. The first is the standard deviation for the equity market in the country that you are trying to estimate the premium for. Try the Bloomberg terminal. Find the equity index for the country in question (Bovespa for Brazil, Merval for Argentina etc.) and type in HVT. This should give you the annualized standard deviation in the index - change the default to weekly and use the 100-week standard deviation. Do the same for the country bond in question. The two standard deviations should yield the relative volatility. If you have trouble finding either number, just multiply the default spread by 1.23 to get a rough measure of the country risk premium. If you want my estimates of country risk premiums, check under updated data on my website. The direct link is below:
You can also see my latest blog post on country risk here:
Finally, The post class test and solution are attached.

Attachments: Post-class test and solution.

2/2/17 In class on Monday, we started with the claimholder consistency principle, arguing that there are two ways to value equity: discount cash flows to equity at the cost of equity or discount cash flows to the firm at the cost of capital and then subtracting out debt. Done right, I argued that you should get the same answer. I hope that you had a chance to try the first weekly challenge. It starts simple but it will test you on your implicit assumptions about valuation. It does not have to be turned in to me and it will not be graded. I will post the solution on Sunday and you can check your answer out. Just another prod on the project. Please pick a company and find a group soon. If you are on the orphan list and are still having trouble finding a group, let me know.
2/3/17 Just two quick notes. The first is that I did put up an in-practice webcast today. It is a very basic webcast on how to read a 10K, using P&G as my example. The links are below:
Downloadable video: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/podcasts/Webcasts/Reading10Knew.mp4
YouTube Video: https://youtu.be/UzUJzdn7c2w?list=PLUkh9m2BorqmRAGzJb5OIvTAKZZu9HWF-
P&G 10K: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/PG/Reading10KPG.pdf
P&G Valuation (excel spreadsheet): http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/PG/P&Gvaluationfixed.xls
The second is that I am still working on getting you access to S&P Capital IQ and should be able to give you an update later. It will make your data collection a lot easier.

As you get ready for Super Bowl weekend, I thought I would get my dibs in early. I have attached the second newsletter to this email. Also, if you do get a chance, please try the weekly challenge that I sent you a couple of days ago. (Since for many of you, that seems like decades ago, I have attached it again). And please do nail down a group and a company to value!

Attachment: Issue 2 (February 4)

2/5/17 I am sure that you are not checking your emails in the middle of a Super Bowl party, while Lady Gaga is performing , or are you? In case you are, the solution to the weekly challenge is attached and if the Patriots don’t score soon after the second half starts, it may be more interesting than the game. Please take a look at it, and in case you gave it your best shot, compare it to your answer. This week, we will continue our discussion of equity risk premiums by introducing the notion of an implied equity risk premium in class tomorrow. Since the concept takes a little getting used to, you may want to read ahead by looking at this blog post on equity risk premiums:
On Wednesdays, we will turn to measures of relative risk (including betas) and move on to computing costs of equity.

In the session today, we started by doing a brief test on risk premiums. After a brief foray into lambda, a more composite way of measuring country risk, we spent the rest of the session talking about the dynamics of implied equity risk premiums and what makes them go up, down or stay unchanged. We then moved to cross market comparisons, first by comparing the ERP to bond default spreads, then bringing in real estate risk premiums and then extending the concept to comparing ERPs across countries. Finally, I made the argument that you should not stray too far from the current implied premium, when valuing individual companies, because doing so will make your end valuation a function of what you think about the market and the company. If you have strong views on the market being over valued or under valued, it is best to separate it from your company valuation. I am attaching the excel spreadsheet that I used to compute the implied ERP at the start of February 2017. Play with it when you get a chance. Post class test and solution attached.

Attachment: Post class test and solution

2/7/17 Sorry it took me so long but the valuation of the week is up and this time, we have a real company, Apple. I have gathered the facts in this page:
This valuation has a little bit of everything that we have talked about in the class - the need for a story, connecting story to numbers and why value can be different from price. It also has enough of the details that we talked about - risk free rate, equity risk premiums and a preview of betas. Please give it a shot and after you have, download the spreadsheet with my latest valuation of Apple:
Feel free to disagree with my story and make it yours. Change the inputs in the spreadsheet and see what happens to the value.
I hope that we can get a couple of hundred of you valuing Apple before next week.

In today’s class, we started by reviewing the pitfalls of regression betas and went on to talk about bottom up betas, focusing on defining comparable firms and expanding the sample. I did make a big deal about bottom up betas, but may have still not convinced you or left you hazy about some of the details. If so, I thought it might be simpler to just send you a document that I put together on the top ten questions that you may have or get asked about bottom up betas. I think it covers pretty much all of the mechanics of the estimation process, but I am sure that I have missed a few things.
We then started on the cost of debt, starting with a definition of the cost of debt as a long term, current cost of borrowing and laying out a procedure for estimating this cost. Next session, we will complete the cost of capital discussion and move on to cash flows. I am attaching the post class test and solution for today's class.

For this week’s weekly challenge, you will be looking at equity risk premiums. There is a lot of mythology about equity risk premiums and the best way to separate the truth from fiction is to look at the data. That is what we do in this week’s challenge. The attached dataset contains my estimates of implied ERP each year, with the T.Bond rate, the T.Bill and the Baa bond default spread each year. Your mission, if you accept it, is to play Moneyball with the data and to try and answer a few questions:
1. What, if any, relationship is there between the ERP and interest rates (T.Bond and T.Bill)?
2. What, if any, relationship is there between the ERP and bond default spreads?
3. Given interest rates today and the default spread today, what would you expect the ERP to be today?
4. Given the actual ERP, what does this tell you about stocks being cheap or expensive?
Have fun with the numbers. Pull out your statistical tools, rusty though they might be, and use them.

Attachments: Post-class test and solution


I want to check to see where you are on the project. Assuming that you have picked a company, joined a group and downloaded the financials, I hope that you have estimated a risk free rate in the currency of your choice. Once you have that, please try the following:
1. Get a geographical breakdown of the countries/regions of the world that your company operates in. It should be in your annual report or financial disclosure forms somewhere. If you cannot, them's the breaks...
2. Get the total equity risk premium and country risk premium for the countries/regions: If you want to do this yourself, the weekly challenge will give you a template. If you want to take a short cut and use my estimates of country risk premiums, that is fine too.
3. Get a weighted average of the country risk premiums: You can use revenue weights of the country/region to compute the weighted average.
I will be posting two valuation tools webcasts tomorrow, one on the risk free rate and one on estimating equity risk premiums that you may (or may not) find useful.

Speaking of valuation (and that is always all I am speaking about), I don’t know whether you have had a chance to see the valuation of the week yet, but if you have not, please take a look. In fact, you can supplement it with this blog post that I put up on Apple a few minutes ago (fresh off the press):
Read it, if you get a chance.

I am not sure whether this will help you keep on track or freak you out, but I have opened a Google shared spreadsheet with everyone in the clas on it for the project. You can go in and input the data on your company as you get deeper and deeper into the project.
I won’t use the Google spreadsheet in my grading. It is just so that you can see where you are on the project, relative to the rest of the class.

2/10/17 First things first. I have been told that you should be able to access S&P Cap IQ data now. Since I take everything that I am told with a grain of salt, could you check and make sure that this is true. (It should be a live link under Sternlife.) Two tools webcasts are up this week. The first one is on risk free rates and the second on implied equity risk premiums.
Risk free Rates
Webcast: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/podcasts/Webcasts/riskfree.mp4
Slides: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/cfovhds/webcasts/riskfree/riskfree.ppt
Additional material:
Moody’s ratings (3/13): http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/cfovhds/webcasts/riskfree/Moodys.pdf
Sovereign CDS spreads (3/13): http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/cfovhds/webcasts/riskfree/CDSfeb13.pdf
Implied Equity Risk Premiums
Webcast: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/podcasts/Webcasts/ImpliedERP.mp4
The supporting materials are below:
Presentation: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/webcasts/ERP/ImpliedERP.ppt
Implied ERP spreadsheet (from February 2013): http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/implprem/ERPFeb13.xls
S&P on buybacks (from earlier this year): http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/webcasts/ERP/SP500buyback.pdf
S&P 500 Earnings: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/webcasts/ERP/SP500eps.xls
I hope that you get a chance to watch one or both!

The third newsletter is attached and I hope that you get a chance to browse through it. Also, I am going to nag you to go into the Google shared spreadsheet and start entering details of the company you have chosen:
It will let me see what you are doing and you keep tabs of where you are in class. I would like to see this spreadsheet filled up by next week. If you have not tried the weekly challenge (look under the webcast page for the class: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/webcasteqspr17.htm) or valuation (also on the same page), given them a shot.

Attachments: Issue 3 (February 11)


I hope that your weekend went well, bad weather notwithstanding. I also hope that you got a chance to try out the weekly challenge that I sent you. If you did, you got to test out your rusty excel statistics tools or perhaps Minitab. I am attaching both the weekly challenge and the solution. Give it a look, when you get a chance.
This week, we will continue our DCF discussion by putting to rest discount rates tomorrow and then moving on to earnings and cash flows. If you want to start applying what we talk about in class quickly to your company, I would suggest printing off your company’s most recent income statement and looking at the footnotes to see if the company has operating lease commitments. In tomorrow’s class, I will argue that accounting makes a hash of both operating leases and R&D and how and why we have to fix the accounting mistake before we do valuation. On Wednesday, we will keep going on cash flows, bringing in questions about accounting fraud and how to estimate free cash flows to equity.

Attachments: Weekly Challenge #2a solution


In today’s class, we started with computing debt ratios for companies and how to deal with hybrid securities.. If you are interested in getting updated default spreads (on the cheap or free), try the Federal Reserve site in St. Louis:
These are spreads on indices created by rating, updated daily. Neat, right?

We then moved on to getting the base year's earnings right and explored several issues:
1. To get updated numbers, you should be using either trailing 12 month numbers or complete the current year with forecasted numbers. In either case, your objective should be to get the most updated numbers you can for each input rather than be consistent about timing.
2. To clean up earnings, you have to correct accounting two biggest problems: the treatment of operating leases as operating (instead of financial) expenses and the categorization of R&D as operating (instead of capital) expenses. The biggest reason for making these corrections is to get a better sense of how much capital has been invested in the business and how much return this capital is generating.
Finally, I have one unattached person whose group came apart. Would you have space for one more person in your group? If so, please let me know!
Post class test and solution attached. (I know a couple of the questions are about tax rates and normalizing income).

Attachments: Post class test and solution

2/14/17 This week, I will be valuing a company that most of you probably have not heard off. In fact, I had never heard of the company until last Thursday, when I decided to pick a company to value for my Nigerian trip (coming up in two weeks). The good news that comes out of this ignorance is that I had absolutely no preconceptions about the company, unlike my valuation of Apple last week, where my connections to the company run deep and sometimes get in my way. The bad news is that I know nothing about the company’s management and its products and very little about the Nigerian economy. Keep that in mind as you read the narrative that I have set up for this week’s valuation:
http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/Valuationofweek/PZ Cussons.html
After you have read the narrative, you can download the spreadsheet that contains the valuation here:
Even if you are as ignorant as I am about the company, I would encourage you to play with the numbers just to get a feel for what growth rates and costs of capital look like in a high inflation currency (Nigerian Naira). Look at the story that I am telling about the company and see if your story is different and if so, how it will play out in your valuation inputs. Once you have a valuation, please do put your two cents in the Google shared spreadsheet:

Today's class covered a lot of topics, some related to cash flows and some related to growth. Let's start with the cash flow part first. I argued that capital expenditures should be defined broadly to include R&D and acquisitions, for consistency reasons. If you want to count the good stuff (growth) that comes from these investments, you have to also count the cost. To get from cash flow to the firm to cash flow to equity requires us to bring in cash flows to and from debt. While borrowing more can make your cash flows to equity higher, they also make your equity riskier, raising the cost of equity. The net effect of leverage on the value of equity can be positive, negative or neutral, depending on the firm and where it is in its borrowing cycle. On growth, we started with historic growth and quickly dispensed with the notion that it is a fact. Depending on how it is estimated (arithmetic vs geometric) and over what period, you can get different numbers. It is also thrown off when a company's earnings go from negative to positive and generally becomes lower as companies get larger.

I also mentioned forensic accounting in the context of accounting game playing. While truly extraordinary items are easy to deal with, accounting ploys to move expenses into the extraordinary column may require some detective work. For those interested in forensic accounting, here are a couple of references:
http://www.amazon.com/Financial-Shenanigans-Accounting-Gimmicks-Reports/dp/0071703071/ref=pd_sim_b_8 <http://www.amazon.com/Financial-Shenanigans-Accounting-Gimmicks-Reports/dp/0071703071/ref=pd_sim_b_8>
http://www.amazon.com/Creative-Cash-Flow-Reporting-Sustainable/dp/0471469181/ref=pd_sim_b_2 <http://www.amazon.com/Creative-Cash-Flow-Reporting-Sustainable/dp/0471469181/ref=pd_sim_b_2>
In the final part of the class, we turned to historical growth and how even this simple number can be affected by choices you make about starting points, scale and averaging approaches.

Attachments: Post class test and solution


This week’s challenge will help you nail down the concepts of adjusting earnings for leases and R&D and how to compute synthetic ratings. It is good preparation for the quiz. So, give it your best shot and I will send you the solution on Sunday.

Attachments: Weekly challenge #3


We are done with the cost of capital portion of the class and while I know that this is probably unrealistic, it is a good time for you to compute the cost of capital for your firm. If you have not started and are intimidated, try this paper that I have on estimating and using cost of capital
Once you have finished with that, if you want to see what the costs of capital look like across different sectors in the US, try this link.
If you want to see the global or emerging market numbers, try the data portion of my website:

Two more quick notes. First, there is no class on Monday (2/20). So, have a long weekend, enjoy yourself and start on your work for the first quiz, which will be a week later on February 27, 2017. The past quizzes for this class are at the link below.
Stick with quiz 1 and use the most recent quizzes (perhaps the last 5-6 years) as indicators, since some of the earlier quiz 1s covered more material. The quiz will not cover what we do next Wednesday but it will cover everything through cash flows (page 152 in lecture note packet 1). Thus, if you see a growth rate problem on a prior quiz, just ignore it. Second, the TAs have been having review sessions and have one planned for next week. If you want to sign up for it, here is the link:
Until next time!

2/17/17 I know that you have big and fun plans for the weekend and it is my job to ruin them. If you feel the urge to catch up on your project, I am going to give you the capacity to do so by posting not one, not two but three in-practice webcasts:
1. Trailing 12-month numbers: In the webcast for this week, I look at how to compute trailing 12 month earnings from a 10K and a 10Q:
http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/podcasts/Webcasts/Trailing12month.mp4 (Uses Apple from late 2012)
The most productive use of the webcast is to print off the most recent annual and quarterly report for your company and work with your company’s numbers.
2. Converting leases to debt: I have also posted a second webcast on converting leases to debt which takes you through the process of which numbers to use in this conversion and how to deal with loose ends (like the lump sum that is often given for past 5 years).
3. Converting R&D to capital expenditures: We also talked about converting R&D from operating to capital expenses. I use Microsoft from a year gone by to illustrate this concept:
How to capitalize R&D: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/podcasts/Webcasts/R&D.mp4
Microsoft 10K 2011: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/webcasts/R&D/Microsoftlastyear10K.docx
Microsoft 10K 2012: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/webcasts/R&D/Microsoft10K.docx
You may be wondering whether to spend your time on these or on preparing for the quiz but sometimes doing the project work is the best preparation for the quiz.

I hope that you are enjoying this long weekend and the great weather. That said, I hope that you are also catching up on your project. If you had a chance to work through the third weekly challenge, the solution is attached. If you did not, I would suggest working through it, at least as review for the first quiz. You will notice a synthetic ratings spreadsheet attached, where I estimate a rating and a cost of debt for the company.
Looking ahead to the coming week, we have only one class on Wednesday and we will dive into growth. After tying up the last loose ends on historical growth, we will look at the pluses and minuses (mostly the latter) of using analyst estimates of growth and then turn to growth estimates based upon fundamentals. The good news, if you are exam focused, is that this material will not be part of quiz 1 but it will not only be part of quiz 2 but will be integral to the DCF that you are doing on your company. (By the way, have you entered your company into the Google shared spreadsheet.
You will start hearing from me, if you do not.

Attachments: Weekly challenge #3, Solution & Synthetic rating

2/21/17 I know that most of you have Snap on your phone and your own reasons for liking it more or less than Instagram. In fact, you have an advantage over me, since I have neither and had to put my seventeen-year old son through a strenuous questioning to find out the pluses and minuses of each (and I am still a little fuzzy about how these filters make things better). Since the Snap IPO is coming up and has been priced, this is as good a time as any for us, as a class, to value Snap.You can check out the prospectus for teh IPO (if you have never gone through a prospectus, this is a nice start):
You can read my post on the Snap IPO and valuation:
You can follow up by downloading my spreadsheet with the valuation:
You can them disagree with me on my story and numbers, change the inputs and come up with your own value. Enter them into the shared Google spreadsheet.
I know that this week is quiz week and that you have other things on your plate, but let’s make this a crowd valuation of the company and see how it goes.

We continued our discussion of growth by first looking at the limitations of analyst estimates of growth and then examining the fundamentals that drive growth. Starting with a very simple algebraic proof that growth in earnings has to come either from new investments or improved efficiency, we looked at how best to estimate growth in three measures of earnings: earnings per share, net income and operating income. With each measure of earnings, the estimation of growth boiled down to answering two questions: (1) How much is this company reinvesting to generating for future growth? (2) How well is it reinvesting? (3) How much growth is added or lost by changes in returns on existing investments? In the next session, we will continue this discussion after the quiz.

Attachments: Post class test and solution

2/22/17 The first quiz is coming up and I wanted to cover some logistical details.
1. Quiz location and timing: The quiz will be from 2-2.30 on Monday, February 27. There will be an extra room to take the quiz. Please see below for where you should go for the quiz:
If your last name begins with Go to
A - I KMEC 1-70
J - Z Paulson
There will be class after the quiz. So, please come to Paulson, when you are done with your quiz.
2. Quiz coverage: The quiz will cover everything through midway through last Wednesday’s class (about slide 152). It will therefore include the big picture sessions on valuation, discount rates and cash flows.
3. Past quizzes: I am reposting the links to the quizzes from just the past few years. While there are older quizzes you can cover, these are much more relevant for the quiz at hand.. If you do run into a growth question, skip it.
Practice quizzes: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqexams/shortquiz1.pdf
Practice quiz solutions: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqexams/shortquiz1sol.xls
As you work through these quizzes, please do remember that I will be grading the quizzes, not a computer or a TA. I grade on process. Please show your work, with your solution and I am perfectly open to alternate solutions to problems, if I feel that you have been logical and consistent and used all of the information in the problem.
4. Quiz review webcast: I have a webcast that I have put together where I take you through the material that will be covered on the quiz. It is about 35 minutes long and it may help you get ready for the quiz (or not)…
Webcast: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/podcasts/Webcasts/valquiz1review.mp4
Slides: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pptfiles/val3E/valquiz1review.pptx
I hope that you find it useful.
2/24/17 I know that the project is not even on your mind this week, as you get ready for the first quiz. However, they are not mutually exclusive. To the extent that your firm has operating leases or R&D, you should try capitalizing them and view it as prep for the final. If you can estimate the free cash flow to the firm and free cash flow to equity last year, you are well on your way.
Now that we are on to growth, you can try a couple of exercises with your company:
1. Compute historical growth, across different time periods, in different measures, and using arithmetic and geometric averages.
2. See if you can find analyst estimates of growth for your company and whether you can decipher what measure (revenues, operating income, net income or earning per share) the estimate is for.
Next week, we turn to the fundamentals that drive growth.
2/25/17 Accounting returns can be messy and misleading but they are a key input into estimating growth and the value of growth. In this webcast, I look at the process of estimating accounting returns, using Walmart as my example:
Webcast: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/podcasts/Webcasts/ROIC.mp4
Walmart 10K (2013): http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/cfovhds/webcasts/ROIC/walmart10K.pdf
Walmart 10K (2012): http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/cfovhds/webcasts/ROIC/walmart10Klastyear.pdf
Spreadsheet: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/cfovhds/webcasts/ROIC/walmartreturncalculator.xls

Just a quick note. The weekly newsletter is attached. I would wish you a great weekend, with the uncommonly warm weather, but I may risking blowback, since I might have ruined it for you. I live to inflict pain, though!

Attachment: Issue 5 (February 25)


I’ll keep this brief since you are probably busy preparing (if you say, “for what”, I think that you are in big trouble). A reminder again about tomorrow’s quiz and quiz seating. The quiz is in the first 30 minutes of class (from 2-2.30) and it is open-book, open-notes but no laptops or connectivity. The seating is as follows:
If your last name begins with Go to
A - I KMEC 1-70
J - Z Paulson
There will be class after the quiz. Finally, in case you tried the weekly challenge this week, the solution is attached.

Attachment: Weekly challenge #4 solution


The good news is that the first quiz is over and I will let you know as soon as it is ready to be picked up. If you were able to hang in there mentally and physically, we continued our discussion of growth by the fundamentals that drive growth. In particular, we looked at how much efficiency can add to growth and how to estimate growth in companies with negative earnings. I have shortened the post-class test and solution for this session, since it was a short session.

Attachments: Post class test and solution


Your quizzes are done and are ready to be picked up.
Where? The quizzes are on the ninth floor of KMEC. As you come off the elevator and before you get to the door leading into the offices, look to your right and you will see a table. The quizzes are on the top shelf.
How? They are in alphabetical order, face down and sorted neatly into three piles. Please just take your quiz, don’t browse and do not mess with the sorted stacks. I have cameras installed that are watching you at all times and drones ready to attack, if you try!
Score check: Once you get the quiz, please take a look at the attached solution. It includes my grading template. You will notice that there two solutions. The first one (EquQuiz1asol) has Savoy/Zuma as the company names for the first problem and the second one (EqQuiz1bsol) had Logue/Henzel as the company names for the first problem. If you feel that I have been unfair to you, you can either come into my office or take a picture of the section of the quiz with which you have a grading issue and send it to me.
Grade check. You can also check your quiz score against the distribution that I have attached. Remember that not only is this quiz only 10% of your grade but that your worst quiz grade, if you take all the quizzes, will be replaced by your average score on the other exams. So, if you did badly, relax! And if you did really well, chill!

Attachments: Solution (a or b) as well as the distribution of grades


In this week’s valuation of the week, I take a look at Tesla, a fascinating company that I have called the ultimate story stock. To understand why, start with this blog post:


In the post, I value Tesla at about $152 (it was trading at $224) and you can find the valuation at this link:
The valuation is from July and Tesla has since reported earnings a couple more times, including its most recent report last week. In my view, not much has changed at the company other than the fact that the Solar City acquisition is now complete and that there is even more confusion about what type of company Tesla is. You can read the most recent earnings release here:
The full 10K has not been filed yet and I will do a full valuation update until it is, but that should stop you from trying. If you do and want to partake, please enter your story and numbers for Tesla in this shared spreadsheet:
Have fun with it!


In today’s class we began by looking at the four rules that keep terminal value in check. We then looked at which model to use in valuing a company and then moved on to the loose ends in valuation, items we often pay little heed to or attach arbitrary premiums/discounts for. We began by looking at cash and whether it should command a premium at some companies (if they have a good track record and have restrictions on raising capital) and a discount at others (if investors don't trust you with the cash). We then looked at cross holdings in other companies and the numerous barriers to valuing them. Third, we looked at other assets and argued that you should never double count assets. I have attached the post class test and solution. On a different note, please do get a jump on the DCF valuation of your firm. The valuation is due on March 24 but only for feedback, not grading. So, don't feel the pressure to get it right. Just get it done. I have also attached weekly challenge for this week, if you feel the urge to try them. If not...

Attachments: Post class test and solution, Weekly challenge #4a

3/2/17 In yesterday’s class we started with a discussion of which model to use in valuing a company and then moved on to the loose ends in valuation, items we often pay little heed to or attach arbitrary premiums/discounts for. We began by looking at cash and whether it should command a premium at some companies (if they have a good track record and have restrictions on raising capital) and a discount at others (if investors don't trust you with the cash). We then looked at cross holdings in other companies and the numerous barriers to valuing them. Now that the quiz is behind you, it is time to turn your attention to your project, recognizing that the DCF for feedback (not a grade) is due on March 24, the Friday of the week that you get back from break. We have covered everything you need to do this in class from estimating the inputs to picking the right model. So, no reason to put it off any more. Incidentally, I am in Lagos, Nigeria, until Saturday. So, if you have questions about your quiz, and you want to see me, you’ll have to wait until Monday.
3/3/17 In this week’s webcast, I look at the terminal value and how to run diagnostic checks on it to make sure that you have been internally consistent and grounded while estimating this number.
Webcast: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/podcasts/Webcasts/terminalvalue.mp4
Sample DCF: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/webcasts/TermValueCheck/termvalueDCF.xls
Diagnostic Spreadsheet: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/webcasts/TermValueCheck/termvaluecheck.xls
Hope you get a chance to check it out.